Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.455055 0.524439 0.599478 0.686489 0.784425 0.891066 1.015786
2025-06-08 0.356363 0.447855 0.554283 0.686575 0.845894 1.030826 1.260933
2025-06-15 0.298408 0.406607 0.541235 0.719473 0.947452 1.227325 1.594678
2025-06-22 0.231304 0.342345 0.490246 0.698729 0.981574 1.348029 1.854049
2025-06-29 0.183307 0.294448 0.452686 0.689616 1.029493 1.492537 2.162487
2025-07-06 0.144224 0.251584 0.414930 0.674408 1.067203 1.628540 2.477103
2025-07-13 0.121846 0.229656 0.404111 0.696626 1.161404 1.854430 2.943208
2025-07-20 0.099728 0.203466 0.382137 0.698306 1.225173 2.043862 3.378586
2025-07-27 0.084277 0.185558 0.370653 0.715155 1.315081 2.283114 3.915110
2025-08-03 0.071705 0.170164 0.360784 0.733180 1.409303 2.539520 4.505194
2025-08-10 0.056588 0.145822 0.329758 0.708239 1.426418 2.672163 4.909892
2025-08-17 0.043650 0.122565 0.296060 0.672342 1.418577 2.761235 5.250678
2025-08-24 0.035416 0.108215 0.278614 0.667280 1.470942 2.967300 5.824495
2025-08-31 0.028391 0.094650 0.259954 0.656555 1.511271 3.157063 6.390791
2025-09-07 0.024536 0.088399 0.256904 0.679304 1.622482 3.491166 7.252454
2025-09-14 0.019015 0.075257 0.233922 0.652742 1.627373 3.623015 7.752386
2025-09-21 0.015144 0.065666 0.217628 0.638803 1.657424 3.807573 8.370845
2025-09-28 0.011914 0.056789 0.200899 0.620420 1.674733 3.968043 8.957511
2025-10-05 0.010289 0.053086 0.198144 0.637660 1.776912 4.315156 9.947515
2025-10-12 0.008487 0.047809 0.189192 0.636500 1.834962 4.574060 10.780069
2025-10-19 0.007284 0.044487 0.185623 0.649823 1.930701 4.924802 11.833829
2025-10-26 0.006286 0.041589 0.182713 0.664594 2.032245 5.298315 12.966463
2025-11-02 0.004887 0.035817 0.167878 0.640333 2.028587 5.431775 13.591857